Presidential Election: New Poll Shows Marine Le Pen Winning Second Round in All Scenarios

Marine Le Pen is projected to win the second round of the 2027 French presidential election regardless of her opponent, according to a new Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche. The survey indicates Le Pen would secure between 67.5% and 52% of the vote in a runoff, depending on the specific candidates.

The poll also places far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the closest contender to securing a spot in the second round. His support ranges between 14.5% and 16%, depending on the configuration of other left-wing candidates. The survey suggests Mélenchon could narrowly qualify if facing Édouard Philippe, the candidate for the Horizons party, who is polling at 16.5% in one scenario but drops to 14% if Gabriel Attal runs instead.

Notably, Marine Le Pen's standing in the polls has not been negatively impacted by her recent conviction on appeal for embezzlement of public funds. Her decision to appeal the ruling, which suspends the execution of her sentence, appears to have had no detrimental effect on her electoral prospects. She is consistently polling above 34% in the first round, irrespective of the other candidates.