Professor: Vučić unlikely to call elections before autumn due to parliamentary hurdles and personal slight

Professor Bojan Vranić of the Faculty of Political Sciences has outlined the reasons why Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is unlikely to call early elections, suggesting they will not occur before autumn. Vranić points to both procedural blockades in the National Assembly and a symbolic personal grievance as key factors.

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He still cannot forgive the students when they stood in front of the Presidency in December and shouted that it is an incompetent institution.

According to Vranić, the current parliamentary session's spring sitting has not officially concluded. This procedural status prevents any new no-confidence motion against the government from being debated. While the opposition could withdraw and resubmit a motion, the assembly cannot address a new one until the current session is formally ended. Furthermore, the Constitution prohibits the dissolution of the Assembly while a no-confidence vote is pending, effectively stalling any potential election call.

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If the authorities through the SNS assembly wanted to overthrow the Government, they would go for the mechanism of submitting a request for a confidence vote. What happened? The first regular session of the spring sitting, which was supposed to have one item on the agenda, was never finished, it was postponed until the conditions for a quorum are met, and for that, the ruling coalition is needed.

Beyond the parliamentary mechanics, Vranić highlights a symbolic reason for the delay. He suggests President Vučić still harbors resentment towards students who protested in December, calling the presidency an "incompetent institution." This perceived slight, Vranić implies, is something Vučić cannot yet forgive, influencing his decision on election timing.

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According to the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia, there is no dissolution of the Assembly while there is a pending no-confidence motion.

Economically and politically, Vranić notes that the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) benefits from waiting. The delay allows the government to implement regular pension increases and announce aid packages for vulnerable citizens by autumn. Additionally, some infrastructure projects are slated for completion by then, which could bolster the party's image. Vranić also touched upon the "explosion of dissatisfaction" stemming from the SNS's long-standing policy of dominance, which stifles individual interests and leads to a lack of systemic responsiveness, a phenomenon he terms "captured institutions."

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SNS does not find it convenient to call elections before autumn because then they can regularly increase pensions, they announced that there will be aid packages for the most vulnerable citizens then, and besides that, part of the infrastructure projects should be completed by then.