Provincial revenue in Argentina lags behind 2023 levels; only six jurisdictions recover

Argentina's provinces are struggling to recover their own-source revenue, with most collecting less in real terms than in 2023, despite signs of economic activity picking up. An analysis by the Institute of Argentine Fiscal Analysis (IARAF) reveals that consolidated provincial tax revenue fell by 7.8% in real terms through May compared to the same period last year. This figure is reduced to a 4.5% decrease when excluding the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, whose 2023 revenue was inflated by extraordinary collections from taxes on LELIQs interest. The primary source of provincial revenue, the Gross Income Tax, which accounts for about 76% of the total, also saw a significant real decline of 11.2% consolidated, or 6.7% excluding Buenos Aires. The study highlights significant disparities among provinces. Only six jurisdictions, including Neuquén (up 21.9% in real terms), Río Negro (up 18.6%), Córdoba, Entre Ríos, Tucumán, and Santa Fe, managed to increase their real revenue in the first five months of 2026. Conversely, Misiones recorded the steepest decline at 29.8%, followed by Formosa, Chaco, and Buenos Aires. Comparing 2025 to 2026 shows a slightly less negative scenario, with a 1.6% real decrease in provincial revenue. Fourteen provinces saw declines, while nine experienced real increases, notably Entre Ríos, Neuquén, and Río Negro. Revenue from Property Tax showed growth, driven by updated fiscal valuations and tax policy changes, while taxes on vehicles and stamps saw real decreases.