Putin's ally under pressure: Russian intelligence reveals Kremlin's leverage over Belarus

The Kremlin is escalating pressure on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, urging him to deepen Belarus's participation in Russia's war against Ukraine. Reports indicate that Moscow is leveraging financial leverage, threatening to withdraw support if Belarus does not permit Russian forces to launch drones from its territory and to broaden the conflict's front towards the west.

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Russia will always stand by Belarus and reject any threats, including those from Ukraine, as Russia and Belarus are security and economic allies.

This strategic push aims to compel Ukraine to divert troops from its main fighting lines to its border with Belarus. A former Russian intelligence officer familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal that the Kremlin's threats are a key tactic in compelling Minsk to yield to these demands. Despite this pressure, Lukashenko has, since 2022, resisted allowing Russia to fully integrate Belarusian armed forces into its operations or to recruit Belarusian soldiers on a large scale for the Russian army.

Kremlin officials continue to portray Ukraine as a threat to Belarus, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov affirming Russia's commitment to stand by Belarus against any threats. Meanwhile, high-ranking Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, reiterate Russia's maximalist war aims and dismiss the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated Russia is open to listening to U.S. negotiators but will not accept a ceasefire based on current front lines as a precondition for talks.

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Russia can achieve all its war goals on the battlefield.

Adding to regional tensions, Russia is grappling with a growing gasoline shortage, particularly in Moscow-City. This crisis is attributed to intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and logistics. In response, Russia has eased some administrative requirements for fuel tankers and is negotiating with Kazakhstan to import approximately 50,000 tons of gasoline, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

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Russia is ready to listen to American negotiators, but will not accept the freezing of the current front line as a condition for negotiations.