Queenslanders brace for a hot, dry spring but hope for a wet summer

Queensland is heading into spring with bushfire conditions already taking hold after an unusually warm, dry winter. Farmers are watching the skies nervously, even as forecasts offer some hope that the wet season could bring relief later in the year.

The state experienced its third-warmest winter on record, with temperatures averaging 1.8 degrees Celsius above normal. Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Hugh McDowell said the unusual warmth would continue across most of Queensland as El Niño strengthened, potentially becoming the strongest on record.

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All our El Niños are different, and they are kind of open to climate and weather chaos as well.

Rainfall patterns have not followed the typical El Niño script. Western Queensland received rain as tropical moisture moved across the state, while eastern areas stayed drier. “All our El Niños are different, and they are kind of open to climate and weather chaos as well,” McDowell said.

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There are areas that are drying out very quickly as we move into spring.

Most of Queensland faces a high chance of below-average rainfall through September and October. The north tropical coast and eastern peninsula may receive more showers, while western districts could see the first meaningful rains of the wet season arrive earlier than usual. McDowell said the signal for above-median rainfall would strengthen across western areas in November and December before spreading through much of the state.

Rural Fire Service Queensland expects more fire activity than in recent years, especially in the southern interior. Crews have already fought fires from the Far North through central Queensland and the south. Assistant chief officer Mark Doble said some areas were drying quickly after unseasonal rain earlier in the year encouraged heavy fuel growth. He also warned that welding and angle-grinding work had started several recent fires.

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Welding or using grinders can obviously be an ignition source.