Race to succeed Lagarde at ECB begins quietly, with candidates in limbo

Christine Lagarde’s first memoir is already being read as a political clue. Atlantic Books announced this week that it had acquired the rights to Lady First, the autobiography of the first woman to serve as France’s finance minister, president of the International Monetary Fund and head of the European Central Bank. Its publication date, January 28, 2027, has drawn particular attention in Europe’s power circles.

The timing has reinforced speculation that Lagarde intends to leave the ECB in the coming months, even though her official term runs until October 2027. The succession race has begun quietly and earlier than expected, stirred by Lagarde’s own hints that she may seek another public role. Possibilities mentioned in the reporting include French politics, next year’s presidential election and the World Economic Forum, the organization behind Davos.

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She has further ambitions. She thinks she can still do something else before retiring, and if she waits until next autumn, she could miss opportunities.

“She has further ambitions. She thinks she can still do something else before retiring, and if she waits until next autumn, she could miss opportunities,” a eurobank executive said. In a July 2 interview with Les Echos, Lagarde said it was “possible” to bring forward her departure to take part in France’s public debate. On July 23, however, she said she would not leave before 2027. At an August World Economic Forum meeting in Geneva, Swiss newspaper NZZ reported that she appeared “ready to serve” as its next president.

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Possible

An early departure could also give Emmanuel Macron’s government control over France’s choice in the ECB succession process. France’s presidential election is scheduled for April, and the article notes that the far right could come to power. Lagarde’s prolonged ambiguity has begun to irritate senior ECB officials, especially after Handelsblatt reported that German executive Isabel Schnabel was also considering leaving before her term ends in December 2027 to take another position at the IMF.

Spain, meanwhile, has an unusually strong contender for the eurobank’s top job. Pablo Hernández de Cos, the former governor of Spain’s central bank and current president of the Bank for International Settlements, ranks among the leading names in surveys cited by the article.

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Ready to serve