Rassvet, Russia’s Starlink That Has Yet to Rise

Russia’s second batch of Rassvet satellites appears to have missed its operational targets. None of the 16 spacecraft launched on July 19 had reached the planned altitude of 550 kilometers by Aug. 31. Many remained between 300 and 400 kilometers, some had already begun losing altitude, and at least two were reportedly heading toward reentry into Earth’s atmosphere.

That is not a minor setback for a program intended to become Russia’s answer to Starlink. Satellites operating too low lose altitude more quickly because of atmospheric drag and require more fuel to maintain orbit. Their operational lifespans shrink, and the economics of the entire constellation change with them.

The first Rassvet batch produced better results, though it was hardly a sweeping success. Twelve of the 16 satellites launched on March 24 had reached the anticipated altitude and remained there through the end of August. Even that tiny constellation could have given Russian forces two daily connectivity windows over Ukraine, totaling roughly 90 minutes. Compared with Starlink, that is little. On a battlefield, however, 90 minutes can matter greatly.

Rassvet is not simply a delayed commercial project. The war has changed its pace and importance. After Russian access to Starlink communications over Ukraine was restricted from Feb. 1, Moscow faced a vulnerability that modern warfare makes difficult to accept: an army dependent on orbital infrastructure controlled by an American company.

Russia responded by accelerating Rassvet, seeking an independent network for military communications, drone coordination and data transmission without relying on Western infrastructure. The apparent failure of the second batch suggests that Russian industry was not ready to expand the constellation so quickly. The problem is therefore larger than satellites failing to reach their assigned altitude. Rassvet reflects Russia’s attempt to secure digital and military sovereignty in orbit, at a time when connectivity has become nearly as important as ammunition.