Raw hatred and soft power: Who came out ahead after the October 7 massacre? - opinion

The world is awash in conflicting narratives about the geopolitical outcomes following the October 7 events, with claims of victory for Iran, the US, and even Donald Trump, while Israel is portrayed as a loser. However, a closer examination suggests a different reality, particularly concerning Iran's strategic standing.

Iran appears substantially weaker across military and leadership metrics compared to before October 7, 2023. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, following a prolonged conflict, and the subsequent rise of his son Mojtaba, alongside the elimination of numerous top commanders, have severely impacted its command structure. Furthermore, Iran's air defenses have been largely destroyed, its nuclear program has faced significant setbacks, and its regional proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, have been badly degraded.

While the Iranian regime did not collapse as some predicted, it faces internal turmoil, with hard-liners criticizing a recent US agreement and blaming officials for leadership losses. The economic toll of prolonged conflict, blockades, and a closed Strait of Hormuz has been considerable. Despite maintaining its nuclear status for now, Iran's ledger shows significant losses in leadership, military capabilities, and economic stability.

Hezbollah and Hamas are also presented as being in a worse position. Hezbollah has lost most of its senior leadership and a significant portion of its rocket arsenal, facing increased pressure to disarm. Hamas, in terms of capability and leadership, is described as devastated, with key figures like Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh among those lost. The article implies that Israel, by degrading these adversaries, is in a strategically stronger position than it was prior to the October 7 events.