Religious identity remains Israel's strongest political divide, IDI study finds

Religious identity continues to be the most significant factor shaping political affiliation in Israel, with voters' religious self-identification strongly predicting their support for either coalition or opposition parties. This finding comes from a new analysis by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI). The IDI examined responses from over 12,000 Jewish adults across 20 surveys conducted between November 2022 and October 2023. The study focused on how Israelis identifying as haredi, religious, traditional-religious, traditional non-religious, or secular voted in the 2022 Knesset elections. The analysis revealed a clear correlation: 97% of haredi voters supported parties that formed the governing coalition, compared to 80% of national-religious voters and 66.5% of traditional voters. Conversely, 74% of secular voters backed opposition parties. While the general relationship between religion and political alignment remained consistent with previous elections, the study highlighted notable shifts between 2021 and 2022. The Religious Zionist-Otzma Yehudit alliance, in particular, broadened its appeal beyond its traditional religious base. Support for this alliance among national-religious voters rose from 30% in 2021 to 45% in 2022, with substantial increases also seen among traditional and secular voters. This expansion coincided with the dissolution of Naftali Bennett's Yamina party, whose former supporters largely moved to the Religious Zionist-Otzma Yehudit. Likud also strengthened its position among traditional voters, increasing its support from 39% to 46.5%. Yesh Atid saw its backing among secular Israelis grow from 31% to 39%. In contrast, National Unity's support among secular voters declined, as did the combined share of Labor and Meretz within the secular vote.