Report: FG Missed Oil Revenue Target by N2.79trn in Q3 2025

Nigeria's federal government experienced a significant oil revenue shortfall, missing its target by N2.79 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. The government managed to collect only N2.45 trillion, representing a mere 31.87% of the amount projected in the 2025 budget for that period.

In contrast, the country's non-oil revenue streams demonstrated stronger performance, surpassing expectations with a total collection of N5.25 trillion. This positive outcome was largely attributed to improved revenue generation from Value Added Tax (VAT), Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), Independent Revenue, and the Education Tax (TETFUND).

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Total FG revenue stood at N7.70 trillion, and expenditure reached N8.03 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of N328.57 billion, financed through privatization proceeds and domestic borrowing.

The Q3 Budget Implementation Report (BIR) for 2025, though delayed in its release, highlighted these figures. Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, noted in the report's preface that revenue shortfalls persisted across both oil and non-oil sectors. Total federal government revenue stood at N7.70 trillion, while expenditure reached N8.03 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of N328.57 billion.

The report identified oil revenue volatility, stemming from production and pricing shocks, as a persistent issue. It also pointed to structural underperformance in the oil sector amid lower market prices. The debt service-to-revenue ratio remains elevated, constraining fiscal space and underscoring the urgent need for enhanced revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization. Bottlenecks in cash management, including delays in planning, continue to slow project execution and increase cost risks.

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Despite fiscal pressures, the government prioritised capital investment, highlighting the ongoing imperative to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation and ensure fiscal sustainability.