Report warns China replicating 'Kinmen model' gray zone tactics near Taiwan islands

China is employing "gray zone tactics" against Taiwan's outlying islands, mirroring a strategy previously used around Kinmen, according to a report by the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation. The "Kinmen model" involves a four-step process: creating a trigger event, conducting law enforcement operations, launching propaganda campaigns, and normalizing the presence to gradually challenge maritime boundaries without resorting to open conflict.

The report highlights that China uses incidents or diplomatic pretexts to assert its claims, sending government vessels into waters under Taiwan's jurisdiction under the guise of "law enforcement." These actions are amplified by state media, portraying them as rights-protection operations. The report notes that the China Coast Guard conducted 117 patrol missions around Kinmen County alone from January to May this year. The Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands) are identified as a key pressure point due to their distance from Taiwan proper and proximity to China's military operations.

Taiwanese officials acknowledge the escalating pressure around Kinmen and Dongsha, describing it as increasingly "normalized." However, Ocean Affairs Council Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en stated that the immediate threat remains manageable. He expressed skepticism about China's ability to easily replicate the "Kinmen model" on Dongsha and Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island) due to significant differences in geopolitical and strategic circumstances.

Sung pointed out that Taiping Island's distance from China makes it distinct from Kinmen. Furthermore, multiple countries have competing sovereignty claims over Taiping Island in the South China Sea, which would complicate any aggressive moves by Beijing. While China's activities have intensified, Sung indicated there are no clear signs of a routine pattern emerging, and the island's unique strategic position offers a degree of protection against a direct replication of the Kinmen strategy.