Republican base's spoils: Pichetto wants Cristina free, Santilli's rise sidelines moderates

The recent appointment of Diego Santilli as Chief of Staff marks a definitive end to the PRO party's role in representing the moderate, center-democratic, and republican electorate that propelled Javier Milei to the presidency in 2023 and Mauricio Macri in 2015. This segment of voters, which has historically secured electoral victories averaging 42% in national elections, supported Milei in the runoff election with the explicit goal of preventing the continuation of Peronism in power.

Santilli's formal position within the Milei administration, which has campaigned and governed by denouncing "republican parasites" (ñoños republicanos), leaves a substantial portion of this electorate without representation. This is a crucial demographic, dominating votes in major electoral districts and advocating for a moderate agenda that respects republican institutions, steering clear of the polarizing rhetoric that poisons public discourse in Argentina and elsewhere.

This numerically significant electorate, often larger than Peronism at the polls, now finds itself unrepresented in the upcoming elections. It is likely to become the target of forces scattered within the ruling party who resist Milei's polarizing and extreme agenda. While these groups have supported the government for the past two years, Macri's insistence on the current course and Santilli's role as the formal head of the anti-parasite cabinet expose an "absent structure." This void reflects a demand that currently lacks a corresponding supply in the political marketplace.

Economic expert Juan Battaglia offered a contrarian view among his peers, suggesting that "the best thing that could happen to Argentina, to lower the country risk, is for a centrist to emerge in the election, because it would automatically lower the country risk, and with a lower country risk, everything is easier." This perspective implicitly endorses the hypothesis that Argentina's primary risk lies with Milei himself. Opinion polls, circulating as the electoral campaign intensifies, suggest a migration of voters willing to seek representation elsewhere. This shift is fueled by two key factors: allegations of corruption undermining the government's narrative of moral regeneration, and a damaging combination of low wages and high prices.

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The best thing that could happen to Argentina, to lower the country risk, is for a centrist to emerge in the election, because it would automatically lower the country risk and with a lower country risk, everything is easier.