Republicans Defend House Majority as 50 Competitive Races Loom Before 2026 Midterms

Only about 50 of the 435 US House races are expected to be competitive in the November 3 midterm elections, but those contests could determine control of the chamber. Democrats need to gain three seats to reclaim the majority from Republicans.

Arizona contains two of the country’s most closely watched districts. In Phoenix’s northern suburbs, Democrat Amish Shah, a former state representative and emergency-room doctor, faces Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker, for an open seat. In a Tucson-based district, retired Marine drill instructor JoAnna Mendoza is challenging Republican Representative Juan Ciscomani, described as a moderate.

Redistricting is central to the fight in California. Several Republican-led states redrew their maps after President Donald Trump urged them to improve their chances of retaining the House. California’s Democratic-led government responded with its own redistricting last year. Analysts say the changes could help Democrats capture five of the state’s 52 Republican-held seats.

Representative David Valadao, a centrist Republican who has survived previous close races in the Central Valley, faces Democrat Randy Villegas, a school board member. Republican Darrell Issa is retiring, leaving San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond and San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert to compete for his seat. East of San Francisco, Democratic Representative Adam Gray, who won his last race by 187 votes, faces Republican Kevin Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor.

Other competitive contests include Colorado, where Republican Representative Gabe Evans won his 2024 race by less than one percentage point and now faces state Representative Manny Rutinel. Trump’s immigration crackdown is a major issue in the district, which is 40% Hispanic. In Florida, Republican-led redistricting could produce a 24-to-four Republican advantage in the state’s House delegation. Democrat Kathy Castor faces Republican Mike Beltran in a Tampa-area district, while Democrat Jared Moskowitz is running in a new Atlantic Coast district north of Miami.