Return of Sub-Saharan Air Mass: Should France Fear Another Heatwave by Mid-July?

Meteorological organizations in France are forecasting a return of high temperatures, with a growing probability of significant heatwaves starting in early July. Météo-France indicated on Sunday evening that the scenario of intense heat across the country is becoming more likely for the week of July 6 to July 13. This prediction comes as the government is taking steps to anticipate future heatwaves, with Sébastien Lecornu convening a new interministerial crisis cell.

Despite the predictions, Météo-France has been cautious about drawing direct comparisons to the heatwave experienced at the end of June. The institution stated that the precise intensity of the anticipated high temperatures remains uncertain at this stage. This caution is rooted in the nature of weather forecasting; while predictions are highly reliable up to three days in advance and around 90% accurate for five days, their accuracy drops below 50% beyond ten days.

The article notes that the reliability of weather forecasts decreases significantly beyond a 5-day horizon. This inherent uncertainty means that while a return of hot weather is anticipated, the exact severity and duration of any potential heatwave cannot be definitively stated this far in advance. The focus remains on the increasing probability of warmer conditions rather than a confirmed severe heat event.

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For the week of July 6 to 13, the scenario of high temperatures across the country is becoming more likely.