RIMPAC exercises begin amid escalating US-China military competition in Western Pacific

The 30th Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) multinational military exercise commenced on June 24 in Hawaii, running until July 31. This year's exercise involves 31 nations, deploying approximately 40 surface ships, 5 submarines, 140 aircraft, and over 25,000 personnel.

The RIMPAC drills are taking place against a backdrop of increased military activity in the Western Pacific. While US allies and partners are converging in Hawaii, China's aircraft carrier "Liaoning" and its fleet have returned to their home port in Qingdao after more than 40 days of training. Concurrently, the US-led "Valiant Shield 2026" exercise began on June 22 around Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Japan, intensifying military drills in the region.

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If we look at the "Shoulder to Shoulder" joint exercise held by the United States and the Philippines in late April, the United States has clearly shown that it does not rely solely on its own strength but combines it with countries like the Philippines and Japan to jointly respond to Beijing.

Experts interpret these developments as a reflection of a new round of military system competition between the US and China, particularly east of the "first island chain." Lin Ying-yu, an associate professor at Tamkang University, notes that the US is increasingly relying on a coalition of allies, including the Philippines and Japan, to counter Beijing. He questions the effectiveness of China's response, particularly given the Liaoning's age.

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The Liaoning can now cross the "first island chain" to operate, but it is limited by supply capabilities and the lack of overseas military bases, making it unlikely to exceed the "second island chain" for a long time.

Shen Ming-shi, a researcher at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, suggests that while the Liaoning can now operate beyond the first island chain, its capabilities are limited by logistical constraints and the lack of overseas bases. However, the future deployment of China's third aircraft carrier, the "Fujian," could extend the operational range of the People's Liberation Army Navy's carriers.

The exercises also highlight underwater warfare and intelligence gathering. Lin points out the importance of observing how US and allied forces practice joint submarine operations, crucial for countering aircraft carrier threats. Meanwhile, China's electronic reconnaissance ship, the "Kiyangxing," has been observed near RIMPAC-related waters, indicating a mutual effort by both sides to monitor each other's activities and electronic signals. The escalating density of air and sea activities, coupled with complex exercise scenarios, suggests that surveillance competition and the risk of encounters in the Western Pacific will continue to rise, despite neither side seeking immediate conflict.

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The US is trying to transform allies and partner countries into a jointly commanded and supported air and sea network through multinational exercises, dispersed deployment, and underwater warfare integration.