Rising fuel imports could cripple local refineries, CPPE warns

Nigeria’s domestic refining sector could lose momentum if petrol imports continue rising without proof that local supply is insufficient, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has warned.

The warning came as the centre reported a sharp increase in Premium Motor Spirit imports. Average daily volumes rose from 5.9 million litres in May to 18.1 million litres in June 2026, then reached 19.7 million litres in July. Imports made up 43.3% of total petrol receipts in July, compared with 12.4% in May, according to figures obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

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Where domestic supply is genuinely adequate, import permits can suppress refinery offtake, weaken utilisation rates and transfer demand, income and employment abroad.

CPPE chief executive Muda Yusuf said unrestricted import licensing could suppress refinery offtake, reduce utilisation and shift demand, income and employment abroad. The organisation said the downstream market had reached “an important transition point” because large-scale private refining had reduced the structural case for import dependence.

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An important transition point

The centre pointed to signs of stronger domestic capacity. Dangote Refinery reported a test run above 700,000 barrels per day in June, while NMDPRA recorded average refinery capacity utilisation of 99.12% in April. Rising seaborne exports of petroleum products also indicated that overall refining capability was no longer the main constraint, CPPE said.

The organisation said imports still serve a legitimate role during refinery outages, seasonal demand spikes, quality gaps and strategic-stock replenishment. Its concern, Yusuf said, was the approval of permits “without a transparent demonstration that domestic refiners cannot meet the relevant demand at acceptable standards and competitive market terms.” CPPE linked the issue to Sections 317(8) and (9) of the Petroleum Industry Act and said the decision could affect foreign-exchange conservation, jobs, industrialisation, energy security and investment confidence.

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Without a transparent demonstration that domestic refiners cannot meet the relevant demand at acceptable standards and competitive market terms.