Risk of Trump's anger towards countries not arming up

An upcoming NATO summit in Ankara could prove tense as the United States, under President Donald Trump, is expected to scrutinize member states' defense investments. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson anticipates a potentially difficult discussion, stating, "I don't think one should expect a courtesy meeting." However, he also expressed hope for substantial and positive long-term commitments to Ukraine's support from the summit.

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I don't think one should expect a courtesy meeting.

Kristersson observed signs that the tide may be turning in Ukraine's favor, citing Russia's significant losses, a stalled front line, and successful Ukrainian drone attacks deep within Russian territory. He believes this shift is also influencing the U.S. president's perception of the conflict, contrasting the standing of Russia's Vladimir Putin with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will attend the Ankara dinner. "The signals ahead of this meeting are fundamentally good," Kristersson noted.

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The signals ahead of this meeting are fundamentally good.

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy has urgently requested more air defense systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles. However, Kristersson indicated that available air defense systems, like Patriots, are scarce, making specific new commitments uncertain. Regarding Sweden's substantial commitment to Ukraine, Kristersson described it as an "existential question," particularly for countries within Russia's perceived sphere of influence. He emphasized Sweden's role in convincing other NATO nations, even those without direct borders with Russia, to recognize Russia as Europe's primary threat.

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It is an existential question, all the most clearly for all countries that lie within what Russia could perceive as a sphere of interest.

Kristersson suggested that Russia's increased attacks on Kyiv are an attempt to pressure Europe into fatigue. He countered this by highlighting the EU's 90 billion euro loan package, stating, "We have just proven to Russia that we will not tire first." The Prime Minister also acknowledged Trump's potential dissatisfaction with NATO members not meeting defense spending goals, predicting this will be a noticeable factor at the summit.

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We have just proven to Russia that we will not tire first.