Robert C. Castel: A 'war of cities' is not impossible + video

Security analyst Robert C. Castel has warned of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting that the war could evolve into a "war of cities." Castel drew historical parallels, noting that strategic bombing campaigns often expand from military targets to dual-use infrastructure and eventually to civilian populations.

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The historical experiences show that strategic bombing campaigns initially attack military targets, then expand to dual-use infrastructure, and finally, cities and the civilian population can also become targets.

While acknowledging that the current conflict has not fully followed this pattern, Castel observed processes that could lead to a higher level of escalation. He expressed skepticism regarding the efficacy of Western sanctions imposed on Russia. Castel described economic warfare as a limited tool with a very long "delivery time," and has been doubtful since the war's outset that sanctions alone could force Russia to its knees.

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It is not impossible that the conflict could move in the direction of a 'war of cities.'

Analyzing reports of Ukrainian military successes, Castel urged for consistent metrics to be applied to both sides. He believes that assessments speaking of Ukrainian breakthroughs or decisive turns are exaggerated. While recognizing Ukraine's regained advantage in drone warfare, Castel pointed out that territorial gains have remained minimal over the past months, comparable to previous Russian advances that were not considered strategic breakthroughs.

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Economic measures are intended to make the population of the country feel the pressure. However, he emphasized that economic warfare is a limited tool with a very long 'delivery time.'

Regarding the Patriot missile system, Castel stated it remains the only Western system capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in significant numbers. However, he expressed doubts about its effectiveness, suggesting it has decreased in recent years. Castel's analysis suggests that the long-term outcome of the war remains unclear, and cautioned against premature declarations of victory or decisive shifts on the battlefield.

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He believes that assessments speaking of Ukrainian breakthroughs or decisive turns are exaggerated.