Rocha Moya Returned Solely to Regain Immunity, Experts Say; Decision May Affect Sinaloa Elections

Political and security specialists suggest that Rubén Rocha Moya's return to his post as governor of Sinaloa was motivated by a desire to reclaim his legal immunity, or 'fuero.' They describe his decision as unilateral, made without prior consultation.

This move follows Rocha Moya's request for leave on May 1, prompted by accusations from the U.S. Department of Justice linking him and other Sinaloa officials to organized crime, drug trafficking, and firearms possession. After 112 days, he announced his return, set to continue until October 31, 2027.

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A partir de entonces, el apoyo de Morena hacia el gobernador ha cambiado. En un primer momento, los morenistas expresaron su apoyo en un tono nacionalista a favor de la soberanía nacional y contra el injerencia extranjera.

Political scientist Erick F. Ruiz de la Cruz noted a shift in Morena's support, initially framed as a defense of national sovereignty against foreign interference. However, he questioned Rocha Moya's ability to govern without the backing of his party or the federal administration, especially since President Claudia Sheinbaum and other prominent party members have distanced themselves. Ruiz de la Cruz believes that maintaining support could have led to further diplomatic and political friction with the United States.

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Then he would have to resort to the constitutional mechanism established for the lifting of immunity, something similar to what happened with Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2005.

David Saucedo, a public policy and security consultant, echoed the sentiment that Rocha Moya's return was primarily to secure immunity against potential actions by U.S. or Mexican authorities, likening it to a process of 'desafuero' (lifting immunity). Experts agree that the decision was premeditated, not sudden. Saucedo stated that Rocha Moya is not in a position to effectively govern Sinaloa and anticipates pressure for his resignation. While a removal process is possible, it would be time-consuming.

Specialists foresee that this situation could negatively affect the 2027 state elections. Ruiz de la Cruz suggested that the lack of support from Morena and ongoing security concerns make it difficult for Rocha Moya to complete his term. The experts anticipate challenges related to potential impeachment proceedings, political trials, or recall votes, as outlined in the Mexican Constitution.

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Rubén Rocha Moya is not in a position to remain in the government of Sinaloa. There will be pressure from politicians, citizens, and the media for him to resign. The impeachment process is viable, but it takes time.