Rules, results, and rival allies: The domino effect of Italy's primaries

Italian political parties are grappling with the intricate implications of upcoming primary elections, a process complicated by a new electoral law that mandates the designation of a prime ministerial candidate. This shift has intensified internal party dynamics and raised questions about coalition stability, particularly concerning the potential duel between Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party (PD) and Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement (M5S).

A communication firm reportedly warned before the summer that primaries could "poison the "campo largo" (broad field)" coalition. The firm suggested that if Schlein wins, some former Five Star voters might abstain or look elsewhere, while if Conte prevails, he might not attract all PD voters. This highlights the delicate chemistry and potential divisions within the potential alliance.

The electoral law, coupled with personal ambitions, has made primaries a near certainty, despite potential divisions within the center-right. Leaders like Matteo Renzi, Riccardo Magi of +Europa, Angelo Bonelli, and Nicola Fratoianni are expected to field candidates, underscoring the widespread pressure to engage in the primary process.

Beyond the primary vote itself, the formation of electoral lists and candidate selection presents another significant challenge. The traditional method of party secretaries choosing teams, counting past votes, and consulting polls may be disrupted, especially if the new law reintroduces preferential voting. The PD, in particular, faces a potential dilemma if Conte, despite losing the primaries, secures a substantial percentage of the vote, which could necessitate sacrifices from the PD's electoral prospects.