Russia claims capture of key eastern town Kostyantynivka; US think tank points to propaganda tactics

Russia claims its forces have captured Kostyantynivka, a strategically important town in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, framing it as a symbol of collapsing Ukrainian defenses. However, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has cast doubt on these assertions, pointing to inconsistencies between Russian claims and battlefield realities.

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The Russian claim is inconsistent with battlefield realities.

ISW reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin stated his forces had captured 133 Ukrainian settlements and over 3,000 square kilometers since the start of the year. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed 29 settlements and 636 square kilometers were taken in June alone. ISW's assessment, based on verifiable evidence, suggests Russia has actually captured or infiltrated about 64 settlements totaling 621.7 square kilometers this year, with only approximately 30.42 square kilometers and 20 settlements taken in June.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense and pro-Russian information channels have widely disseminated videos of Russian troops raising flags, which may even contain AI-altered content, intending to exaggerate Russian military achievements and create a narrative of collapsing Ukrainian defenses.

Kostyantynivka is a crucial node in Ukraine's "fortress belt" defense line, vital for protecting cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Following Russia's claim, Russian state media and pro-Russian military bloggers amplified the narrative, suggesting a westward advance. However, ISW noted that much of the video evidence released by Russia, showing troops raising flags in and around the town, is often short and fails to prove sustained control or the subsequent fate of the soldiers. The presence of military equipment like vehicles and mortars, typically observed in controlled urban areas, is also absent from the evidence.

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If the Russian army truly controlled Kostyantynivka, the use of equipment such as vehicles and mortars within the city would typically be observed, but there is currently no evidence of this.

Both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian military's eastern command have denied Russia's claims. Ukrainian military sources indicated that Russian troop numbers in the city were limited in mid-June, and Ukrainian forces held a numerical advantage at that time, suggesting Russian activity was more likely infiltration rather than full occupation. ISW believes Russia may eventually capture Kostyantynivka but cautions this would not necessarily lead to a rapid breakthrough of the remaining Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk. The think tank concluded that Russian spring and summer offensives have not achieved operationally significant results, and advances in areas like Kostyantynivka and Lyman come at a high cost in casualties.

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Even if Russia eventually captures the city, it does not mean the Russian army can quickly break through the remaining 'fortress belt' defenses in Donetsk Oblast.