Russia losing control of Syrian military bases after regime change

Russia is effectively losing control of its two key military bases in Syria, Tartus and Khmeimim, after protracted negotiations with the new Syrian regime. The deal, reached after 18 months of talks, signifies a major geopolitical shift following the ousting of Russian ally Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

The new Syrian leadership, headed by former rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, is pivoting away from Moscow and Tehran. Instead, al-Sharaa is forging closer ties with Turkey and the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf, while also seeking improved relations with the West. This shift has already led to the US considering removing Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

The fate of the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base, which has been a Russian presence since the 1970s, was a symbolic issue. While many expected the bases to close entirely, the agreement suggests Russia will retain some presence, though its control is significantly diminished. Russia's diminished capacity to intervene in Syria was partly due to its extensive military commitments in the war against Ukraine, a significant blow to Putin's global ambitions.