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Russia may face unpopular mobilization as recruitment campaign falters

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Russia's recruitment campaign for soldiers in the war against Ukraine is faltering, with numbers down 20% compared to previous years.
  • Despite high signing bonuses, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian soil may be contributing to recruitment challenges.
  • Analysts suggest Russia might resort to an unpopular forced mobilization, a move that could politically endanger the Kremlin.

Russia is intensifying its recruitment campaign for soldiers fighting in Ukraine, offering signing bonuses up to four times the national annual salary. However, these efforts are reportedly falling short, with recruitment numbers down 20% this year compared to previous periods, according to Russian economic expert Janis Kluge.

In the first quarter of this year, regional recruitment drives enlisted approximately 71,216 soldiers, a decrease from 89,601 in the same period last year. Ukrainian intelligence, cited by the Kyiv Independent, suggests Moscow is considering a vastly unpopular forced mobilization to meet its troop demands, rather than relying solely on increased recruitment incentives.

This potential move contrasts with Russia's previous "partial mobilization" in 2022, which drafted at least 300,000 soldiers. While that initiative faced backlash, including mass emigration of draft-age men and recruitment from prisons, the Kremlin managed to withstand the political fallout. Now, as the war enters its fifth year and public war-weariness grows, dissent to a mobilization order could be more difficult to contain.

If Russia does trigger military mobilization, it is a sign that the regime is under tremendous strain and is politically trapped.

— Max BergmannAnalyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), commenting on the potential political risks of a forced mobilization for the Russian regime.

Analysts warn that triggering military mobilization would signal immense strain on the Russian regime. "If Russia does trigger military mobilization, it is a sign that the regime is under tremendous strain and is politically trapped," said Max Bergmann, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He described it as a "huge gamble for Putin, a bet that could put himself and his regime at risk."

Notably, the war in Ukraine is the first in Russia's history where conscription has not been technically imposed. The Kremlin has instead relied on financial incentives, which may no longer be effective for younger Russians. Analysts believe Russia might be losing more troops than it can replace through its current recruitment methods.

a huge gamble for Putin, a bet that could put himself and his regime at risk.

— Max BergmannAnalyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), describing the potential consequences of a forced mobilization.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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