Russia on Track for Larger-Than-Expected Budget Deficit

Russia's budget deficit in the first half of 2026 has reached 5.731 trillion rubles, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance. This figure significantly surpasses the initially projected deficit for the entire year.

The government's budget law for 2026 had set the deficit at 3.786 trillion rubles, which equates to 1.6% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). However, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov suggested that the deficit forecast might be revised upward, attributing the high deficit numbers at the start of the year to accelerated financial expenditures.

Compared to the same period last year, Russia's budget deficit in the first six months of 2025 was 3.387 trillion rubles, also around 1.6% of GDP. The ministry noted that oil and gas revenues from January to June decreased by 22.7% year-on-year, falling to 3.661 trillion rubles, below the official floor of 3.825 trillion rubles.

This decline in oil and gas revenues is primarily attributed to lower oil prices in preceding periods, the ministry stated. The widening deficit raises questions about Russia's fiscal stability amidst fluctuating energy markets and increased government spending.

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The high deficit numbers at the start of the year are mainly due to the acceleration of financial expenditures.