Russia's troop losses near critical point, Putin may be forced into a risky second mobilization

Ukraine is warning that Russia may soon resort to a second conscription drive, a move President Vladimir Putin has so far avoided. This potential step comes as Russian forces face increasing casualties on the front lines and a slowdown in recruitment. Experts view a second mobilization as a major political gamble for Putin, given the significant public backlash and exodus of citizens following the initial partial mobilization in September 2022, which drafted 300,000 reservists.

Analysts believe Russia would only risk such a move if its front lines were on the verge of collapse or if it decided to fully transition to a wartime economy. Such a transition could signal an escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine's borders. The initial mobilization in 2022 triggered protests and prompted tens of thousands to flee the country. Now, with an economy already strained by war and a public growing weary of the prolonged conflict, controlling the impact of a second conscription could prove even more challenging.

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If Russia were to initiate military mobilization, it would signal that this regime is under extreme pressure and in political distress.

Estimates from the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggest Russian battlefield casualties could reach 1.2 million by December 2025, with up to 325,000 fatalities. To compensate for these losses, Moscow needs to recruit over 30,000 new soldiers each month. However, Ukrainian intelligence indicates that only 70,500 soldiers signed up in the first quarter of this year, falling short of the defense ministry's target by approximately 30,000. German expert Janis Kluge of the Institute for International Security Affairs (SWP) estimates similar figures, with around 71,216 contract signings in the same period, marking the lowest number in three years.

Military analyst Kateryna Stepanenko notes that Russian casualties have outpaced recruitment since late 2025, necessitating at least a partial mobilization to maintain last year's ground offensive pace. Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, stated that "if Russia were to initiate military mobilization, it would signal that this regime is under extreme pressure and in political distress." He added that mobilization is "a huge gamble for Putin, a bet that could put him and his regime at risk."

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mobilization is a huge gamble for Putin, a bet that could put him and his regime at risk.