Russian oil exports at lowest since April due to Ukrainian attacks

Russian seaborne crude oil exports have plummeted to their lowest point since late April, a decline significantly impacted by Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Black Sea oil infrastructure. This marks the fifth consecutive week of decreasing shipments, representing the most substantial drop observed in a comparable period since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

According to Bloomberg's analysis of ship movements, Russia exported an average of 3.58 million barrels per day in the four weeks ending August 16. The situation worsened significantly last week when no crude oil was loaded at Novorossiysk, a crucial Russian Black Sea port that was targeted by a Ukrainian attack on Wednesday. Although some facilities resumed operations over the weekend, the overall trend remains downward.

Previously, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries had an unintended consequence of increasing crude oil exports, as unrefined oil was redirected abroad. However, Kyiv's current strategy appears to be targeting export terminals and vessels directly, thereby restricting this alternative. Despite the recent declines, Russian exports remain relatively high compared to the period immediately following the invasion, with average levels in 2026 still exceeding those seen then.

Russia continues to prioritize Asian markets, with approximately 1.22 million barrels per day directed to China over the past four weeks. Data for India is less precise, as many tankers declare their final destinations only at the last moment. The ongoing attacks pose a significant challenge to Russia's oil export capabilities.