Saudel Approaches Taiwan; Forecasts Differ on Storm's Path and Speed

Tropical Storm Saudel is on a path toward Taiwan, prompting weather agencies worldwide to issue updated forecasts. While most predict the storm will move southwest after passing the Ryukyu Islands, there are differences in projected speed and trajectory.

The National Disaster Prevention and Research Center (NCDR) has compiled the latest international path predictions. The storm was located 2,030 kilometers east of Taipei on August 23, moving west-northwest at 27 kilometers per hour. The NCDR noted that Saudel could intensify into a severe tropical storm as early as August 24.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB) forecasts a slower pace for Saudel compared to other agencies. The CWB predicts the storm's center will still be in the waters north of Taiwan on Friday, August 28. In contrast, other forecasts suggest Saudel could enter the Taiwan Strait by the same day, potentially making landfall in China.

Discrepancies exist regarding Saudel's "falling angle" or downward trajectory. The CWB and the U.S. Navy anticipate a more northerly track, with a steeper downward angle after passing north of Okinawa. Meanwhile, China, Japan, and South Korea's forecasts suggest a less pronounced downward movement after passing south of Okinawa, potentially bringing the storm's center along Taiwan's northern coast.