Saudi Arabia bets on defensive alliances to deter slide into war - analysis

Saudi Arabia is actively constructing regional defensive alliances in an effort to deter escalating attacks from Iran and its network of allies. The kingdom seeks to protect its ambitious economic development plans while avoiding entanglement in a wider regional conflict, particularly amid the ongoing war between the US and Iran.

Despite recent efforts, such as establishing a multinational maritime coalition in the Red Sea and a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan, these nascent alliances have yet to effectively ward off attacks. Analysts and diplomats note that the kingdom's own military responses to assaults from Iran, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis have remained limited. The Houthis, who recently opened a southern front against Saudi Arabia, have also targeted Saudi shipping.

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Saudi Arabia's problem is that the kingdom's enemies know it wants to avoid war. They are abusing that.

Experts observe that Saudi Arabia's clear intention to avoid war is being exploited by its adversaries. "Saudi Arabia's problem is that the kingdom's enemies know it wants to avoid war. They are abusing that," one Middle Eastern official stated. Aziz al-Ghashian, a Saudi analyst, added that Iran and its affiliates perceive Saudi restraint as an acceptance of being targeted, making deterrence a critical but challenging endeavor.

The kingdom has faced significant attacks on vital oil infrastructure from Yemen and Iraq, as well as on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. In response, Saudi Arabia and the US launched joint airstrikes against Iraqi militias implicated in the attacks, marking the first publicly announced retaliation by the kingdom during the war. This action occurred despite Riyadh's efforts to avoid being perceived as a co-belligerent with the US and Israel. The kingdom also announced its intention to lead a maritime defense coalition in the Red Sea shortly after the joint airstrikes.

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This is all very concerning and is exactly what Saudi Arabia wanted to avoid. Iran and its affiliates think Saudi won't respond. They understood restraint as basically an acceptance of being targeted and this is why it was very important for Saudi to find a way to deter them. The trick is how to balance it.