Saudi Arabia's Yemen quagmire: A decade of missteps, not Houthi strength

Saudi Arabia appears poised for renewed military engagement along its border with Yemen, as Houthi drones and missiles resume attacks. However, this potential escalation stems not from Houthi invincibility, but from a decade of Saudi strategic errors, leaving the Kingdom with a hostile proxy state on its southern frontier.

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If Saudi Arabia finds itself facing a permanent, hostile proxy state on its southern border, it is not because the Houthis are invincible. It is because Riyadh spent a decade trapped in a labyrinth of its own strategic miscalculations.

Understanding Yemen's complex history is key to grasping the situation. The country is a union of two distinct entities: North Yemen, historically governed by a fiercely independent Zaydi Shia Imamate, and South Yemen, a Sunni-majority maritime society shaped by trade and British administration. This fractured union, hastily formed in 1990, proved to be a geopolitical powder keg.

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To understand why the richest monarchy in the Arab world failed to pacify its poorest neighbor, one must understand that Yemen was never truly one country. It was a forced marriage between North and South.

The explosion came in 2014 when the Houthis, a Zaydi revivalist movement backed by Iran, seized control of Sana'a. Their initial success was aided by an alliance with loyalists of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, an alliance that later proved fatal for Saleh himself when the Houthis executed him in 2017.

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When that bomb finally exploded in 2014, the Houthis, a Zaydi revivalist movement, weaponized and financed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, swept out of their northern mountain fortresses to seize Sana’a.

Saudi Arabia's response was a massive conventional air campaign, which proved ineffective in an asymmetric civil war. Significant territorial gains against the Houthis were primarily achieved through ground operations orchestrated by the United Arab Emirates and local southern fighters. A critical turning point came in 2018 with the Stockholm Agreement, brokered by the UN amid a humanitarian crisis. However, instead of delivering a decisive blow, Saudi Arabia halted its offensive, allowing the Houthis to retain control of Al-Hudaydah, a vital port for Iranian smuggling and piracy, which continues to sustain their war effort.

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The alliance between Houthi forces and loyalists of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh was crucial to the initial takeover but proved fatal for Saleh.