Security zone reduction in Lebanon: Will this time be different? - analysis

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently unveiled a map detailing a new security zone in southern Lebanon, signaling Israel's intent to maintain a presence in the area. The zone involves the evacuation of most civilians and the razing of some villages, a policy described as borrowed from Gaza and supported by the international community and the United States.

This new security zone bears resemblance to those established in the 1980s and 1990s, but with key distinctions. Previously, Israel partnered with the South Lebanon Army, a local force that facilitated engagement with the population and countered threats. Israeli soldiers were also more accustomed to operating among Arab populations, having done so in Gaza and the West Bank.

However, current Israeli military doctrine emphasizes minimizing civilian proximity to soldiers, a change largely attributed to experiences since the Second Intifada. The military prefers to avoid direct involvement in civilian affairs, recognizing that armies are ill-equipped for such roles. This approach aims to prevent situations where soldiers, conscripted for combat, are forced into difficult law enforcement or riot control scenarios.

The evacuation and removal of the Shi'ite population from southern Lebanon appears to be a semi-permanent policy, mirroring the strategy in Gaza of moving civilians away from the border to prevent attacks like the one on October 7. Military analysts note that armies often prepare for past conflicts, drawing parallels to France's Maginot Line strategy before World War II.