Serbia's GDP to grow 2.9% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, says UniCredit

Serbia is projected to achieve a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, according to the latest quarterly report from the UniCredit Investment Institute. The report highlights that the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region will continue to be one of Europe's most resilient growth areas.

Economic activity in the CEE region is primarily supported by robust domestic demand and significant investments from the European Union. While governments grapple with fiscal consolidation and inflationary pressures, the easing of energy supply concerns following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced a major risk factor. However, the situation in the Middle East continues to present uncertainties.

Mauro Giorgio Marano, Senior CEE Macroeconomic Analyst at UniCredit, noted the region's exceptional resilience despite fiscal adjustments and geopolitical uncertainties. He emphasized that domestic demand remains a strong growth driver. Countries that effectively combine fiscal consolidation with investment and competitive reforms are best positioned to attract capital and sustain long-term growth.

Looking ahead, stronger absorption of EU funds and an improving external demand are expected to fuel broader acceleration across the region from 2027. The report also identifies significant variations among countries. Poland is expected to maintain strong growth, with GDP rising by 3% in both 2026 and 2027. Bulgaria is forecast to grow by 2.9% in 2026. Hungary's recovery is anticipated to be more gradual, with growth at 1.3% in 2026, improving to 2.5% in 2027 as investments rebound.

Romania and Slovakia face a more challenging near-term outlook, with fiscal consolidation weighing on economic activity. Romania's GDP is projected to grow by only 0.2% in 2026 before recovering to 2.3% in 2027. Inflation remains a significant challenge across the region, driven by base effects, tax increases, and energy price shocks. Nevertheless, lower energy prices are expected to significantly improve the economic outlook, with inflation anticipated to return within central bank targets by the end of 2027.

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CEI continues to show exceptional resilience. Despite fiscal adjustment, geopolitical uncertainty, and structural challenges in production, domestic demand remains a strong driver of growth. The region is entering a phase where countries capable of combining fiscal consolidation with investment and competitive reforms will be best positioned to attract capital and maintain long-term growth.