Serbia Should Not Condition MOL on NIS Refinery Operations, Analyst Says

Nenad Gujaničić, chief broker at Momentum, stated that Serbia should refrain from imposing conditions on the Hungarian company MOL regarding the operation of the NIS refinery or any other business decisions. He asserts that investors will not accept such stipulations, as they could lead to future losses.

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It is not good to condition MOL that if they buy a controlling stake in NIS from Gazprom, they must maintain refinery production, nor with any other business moves. The public interpretation that such conditioning is possible is wrong.

"It is not good to condition MOL that if they buy a controlling stake in NIS from Gazprom, they must maintain refinery production, nor with any other business moves. The public interpretation that such conditioning is possible is wrong," Gujaničić told the Beta agency. He was responding to claims by Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović, who called the intention to close the Pančevo refinery a "red line" that Serbia would not allow.

Gujaničić believes Serbia has no role in the share purchase negotiations between Gazprom and MOL and is therefore not an obstacle, contrary to public perception. He identifies the primary issue as Gazprom's reluctance to sell its stake, leading to delays as it awaits geopolitical shifts. "The main problem is that the Russian company is 'not willing to sell its stake, so it is delaying in anticipation of a change in the geopolitical situation for the simple reason that it did not voluntarily enter the sales process,'" Gujaničić explained.

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The main problem is that the Russian company is 'not willing to sell its stake, so it is delaying in anticipation of a change in the geopolitical situation for the simple reason that it did not voluntarily enter the sales process.'

He suggested that Serbian authorities are attempting to create an impression of being central to the negotiations, a portrayal he deems inaccurate. "I think this is a consequence of the fact that the ordinary citizen has realized that the Serbian side is not involved in the negotiations and is not important in the entire process, so it is now trying to give the impression that state representatives are present in the negotiations, and that they are giving themselves the right to set restrictions that no foreign investor would accept," Gujaničić said.

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I think this is a consequence of the fact that the ordinary citizen has realized that the Serbian side is not involved in the negotiations and is not important in the entire process, so it is now trying to give the impression that state representatives are present in the negotiations, and that they are giving themselves the right to set restrictions that no foreign investor would accept.

He questioned why similar conditions were not imposed on Chinese investors in RTB Bor or other foreign investors receiving subsidies. Gujaničić pointed to the closure of the NIS refinery in Novi Sad, which was initially intended for a different purpose but eventually disappeared, as an example of how such conditions might not be enforced. He concluded that while imposing conditions on investors is not impossible, it would deter them from coming or significantly increase the cost of investment.

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Why, if it is possible, did the authorities not set some conditions for the Chinese in RTB Bor, or for other foreign investors to whom they give subsidies, which would be more natural according to that logic.