Serbian Opposition Faces Election Uncertainty as Key Dates Loom

Program Director of Demostat Zoran Panović assesses that Serbian elections are more likely to be held on October 25th, not the 18th. He views the prolonged delay since students first demanded elections as a success for President Aleksandar Vučić.

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If we are talking about the latest announcements, I think October 25th is more certain, because if Mr. Vučević, the president of SNS, announced a main board meeting in two weeks in Novi Sad where key decisions about candidates will be made, whether Vučić will be on the list, and who the coalition partners will be, September 5th is the last deadline to call elections for October 18th. I think this second date in October (25th) seems more certain.

Panović stated that the constant announcements of elections without a concrete date reminded him of OFAC granting a license to NIS. He believes October 25th is more probable, citing the SNS party's main board meeting scheduled in two weeks to decide on candidates, Vučić's potential list inclusion, and coalition partners. This meeting suggests September 5th is the last possible date to call elections for October 18th.

"Everything indicates that there will be elections," Panović said, adding that the credibility of parties and the president is at stake, given the resources and announcements of financial aid and budget rebalancing. He suggested that while the situation might not be ideal for the ruling SNS, it is better than less ideal alternatives.

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And, not to be cynical, but the credibility of the party is at stake, and the president, if he has emphasized these dates so much, and so much engagement of resources, announcements of distributing money, budget rebalancing, everything indicates that there will be elections.

Panović also noted the psychological aspect of the prolonged election process, describing it as a form of psychological warfare. He highlighted the symbolic importance for Vučić of holding rallies in Novi Sad and Užice, areas perceived as less supportive of him. "It is psychologically important, symbolically, to show that the Serbian Progressive Party is strong there," he explained.

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This prolonged delay of elections is also his success.

Regarding the opposition, Panović indicated that research suggests a unified front would be more competitive. He mentioned past discussions of three separate opposition lists, student, pro-European, and a so-called authentic right-wing, but noted that the situation appears worse now, with potentially even more lists.

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It is psychologically important, symbolically, to show that the Serbian Progressive Party is strong there.