Seven experts identify a telling detail and assess where and how Putin could widen the war

Russia has spent years testing Europe with sabotage, disinformation and cyberattacks. Now, as drones and missiles from the war in Ukraine cross borders, seven experts are asking a sharper question: not simply whether Vladimir Putin might widen the war, but where and how he would do it.

The Atlantic Council analysis, published on Sept. 1, begins with an unusual detail. CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow on Aug. 25. One reported purpose linked to the trip was to warn Russia’s leadership against attacking NATO allies. The comparison with former CIA Director Bill Burns’ visit shortly before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is presented as deliberate rather than accidental.

Justina Budginaite-Froehly, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s European Center, focuses on the Baltic states. She says Russia repeatedly tests what it can do to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and to their allies, without provoking a decisive response. The pressure includes drone incursions, attacks on critical infrastructure, arson, assassination plots, cyber operations, and GPS jamming and spoofing.

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Russia consistently tests the limits of what it can do to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and their allies without provoking a decisive response.

Her assessment is that Moscow will keep pushing until it encounters a credible cost. Russia’s material commitment to the war in Ukraine does not necessarily make it less dangerous. It could instead become more willing to bring the conflict closer to Kyiv’s strongest supporters in an effort to weaken their backing. If Putin grows desperate over a stalled front and sees political uncertainty within NATO, she writes, he may conclude that escalation could alter the war’s strategic course.

The Baltic states are therefore reinforcing their defenses and urging NATO to treat repeated below-threshold attacks as part of one Russian strategy for probing alliance weaknesses. The ultimate target of escalation in the region, Budginaite-Froehly argues, would be NATO itself and public confidence that collective defense would work. A strong forward presence, including the return of urgently needed U.S. forces, is presented as essential to deterrence. The analysis says Baltic stability is a strategic interest of the United States and its allies.

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Moscow will push until it encounters a credible cost.