Seven lessons learned from a world in disarray [Why This Matters]

The current international landscape is characterized by unprecedented chaos, a decline in respect for international law and multilateral institutions, and a pervasive sense of disorder. Major powers have increasingly disregarded established procedures, leading to a breakdown in global cooperation. This is evident in ongoing conflicts like the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the militarization of the South China Sea, and the paralysis of the UN Security Council. Furthermore, development aid is dwindling, and responses to mass atrocities have faltered.

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Today, our international environment is more chaotic, disordered, and bleak than at any time we can recall.

Compounding these issues is a worrying trend of major nations withdrawing from international organizations and employing trade as a weapon, weakening institutions like the World Trade Organization. The existential threats of climate change, pandemics, and nuclear war remain inadequately addressed, with arms control agreements in tatters or barely holding on. The emergence of new risks associated with artificial intelligence adds another layer of complexity, with no clear solutions yet in sight.

A significant factor contributing to this grim environment is the deficit of effective leadership in many key countries. The digital media age, with its tendency to foster shallow populism, makes courageous and sophisticated policy responses increasingly difficult. There is a concerning amnesia regarding the catastrophic consequences of military aggression and a misplaced belief that security is best achieved through exclusion rather than cooperation and shared security.

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Military power does not guarantee victory or dominance.

However, the author, Gareth Evans, a former Australian Foreign Minister, posits that the current collapse need not be permanent. He identifies seven crucial lessons from recent history that leaders must internalize to navigate and ultimately rebuild a more stable international order. These lessons underscore the limitations of military might, the true nature of nuclear deterrence, the power of competence over recklessness, the strength found in collective action by middle powers, the enduring importance of soft power and dignity, the effectiveness of fighting corruption, and the vital role of optimism in driving change.

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Nuclear weapons are not as useful an asset as commonly thought.

Evans emphasizes that military force does not guarantee victory or dominance, as demonstrated by Russia in Ukraine and the U.S. in Iran. He also highlights that nuclear weapons are less useful than commonly believed, serving neither as a tool for coercion nor as a foolproof deterrent. The real danger lies in miscalculation or system error, necessitating a renewed focus on risk reduction. The piece concludes by advocating for a shift towards diplomacy and cooperation, drawing strength from middle powers and maintaining an optimistic outlook for the possibility of positive change.

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The power of the many is a force to be reckoned with.