Slovak Poll: Progresívne Slovensko Leads, Governing Coalition Faces Majority Challenges

A recent opinion poll conducted by AKO for JOJ 24 indicates shifts in Slovakia's political landscape ahead of potential May 2026 elections. The opposition party Progresívne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia) leads with 19.7% of voter support, though this represents a 1.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month.

Trailing closely is the ruling Smer party, which gained 1.1 percentage points to reach 18.9%. The nationalist movement Republika secured third place with 9.1%, also an increase of 1.1 percentage points. The coalition party Hlas remains stable at 8.9%, while the liberal SaS party holds 8.6%, showing a modest gain of 0.4 percentage points.

Other parties also saw movement. Igor Matovič's Slovensko movement garnered 8.2% (up 0.5 points), and KDH registered 7.9% (up 0.3 points). The centrist Demokrati party fell significantly, now at 5.1%, down 0.9 percentage points. Notably, the Slovak National Party (SNS), a coalition partner, falls just short of the 5% threshold with 4.8% support. Other parties like Maďarská aliancia, Sme rodina, and Právo na pravdu are polling below 5%.

In terms of parliamentary seats, Progresívne Slovensko would secure 34 seats, Smer 33, and Republika 16. Hlas would also have 16 seats, and SaS 15. Slovensko and KDH would each have 14 seats, with Demokrati taking eight. This configuration presents a complex scenario for government formation. The current ruling parties, Smer and Hlas, would together hold only 49 seats. Without the SNS (which falls below the threshold), they would not achieve a majority even with Republika's support, totaling just 65 votes. Conversely, an opposition coalition of Progresívne Slovensko, SaS, KDH, and Demokrati would reach 71 seats, but would require the support of Igor Matovič's Slovensko movement to achieve a governing majority of 85 seats.