Smotrich-Feiglin merger clears electoral threshold and lifts Netanyahu coalition in poll

A merger between Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party and Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut has changed the arithmetic of Israel’s next election, according to Maariv’s latest poll. The alliance would win five seats after passing the 3.25% electoral threshold.

The Ofer Winter-led People of Israel party would also clear the threshold with four seats. Together, the results would lift Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to 51 seats, its strongest showing in the poll since May. The opposition bloc would fall by two seats to 57, largely because Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party lost two seats. Arab parties also declined by one seat compared with the previous week.

The figures still leave Netanyahu’s coalition 10 seats short of the 61 needed to form a government. The opposition remains four seats short as well, raising doubts about whether it could build a government without support from another party. The two newly strengthened parties remain vulnerable to falling below the threshold, which could alter the picture sharply.

In hypothetical matchups for prime minister, Eisenkot led Netanyahu 48% to 39%. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett also led Netanyahu, 43% to 39%, while former defense minister Avigdor Liberman trailed Netanyahu 42% to 39%.

The poll found that 55% of respondents feared another war between Israel and Iran in the near future, compared with 39% who were not concerned and 6% who were unsure. On claims of an “inside betrayal” around Oct. 7, 2023, 44% rejected the idea, 40% believed it occurred and 16% were uncertain. Coalition voters largely supported the claim, while opposition voters largely rejected it. Among opposition voters, 52% favored further mergers before the Oct. 7 vote.