Someone Seems to Have Done Something Right: Sweden's Expulsion Enforcement Improves Slightly

Sweden faces a persistent challenge in enforcing expulsion orders for foreign criminals, with less than half successfully leaving the country after serving their sentences. A comprehensive review by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå) analyzed nearly 6,000 cases between 2013 and 2024, revealing that only 48 percent of individuals sentenced to expulsion actually depart.

Several factors can explain the low rate of successful expulsions. Some criminals may face genuine risks to their lives if returned to their home countries, while others have strong ties to Sweden, such as family, making expulsion seem unreasonable. Courts consider these factors when issuing expulsion orders. However, the Brå report suggests that these legitimate obstacles cannot solely account for the low enforcement rate.

The discrepancy is stark when examining different regions of origin. Expulsions are successfully carried out in 82 percent of cases for criminals from Western Europe, but this figure drops to just 32 percent for those from North Africa. While these regional differences exist, the majority of individuals facing expulsion are from neighboring EU countries like Romania, Lithuania, and Poland, accounting for nearly 30 percent of all cases. Even to these EU nations, with which Sweden maintains good relations, less than half of expulsion orders are enforced.

Despite the overall low numbers, there are signs of improvement. In 2013, only 18 percent of convicted criminals were expelled after their sentences. By 2023, this figure had risen to 58 percent. The Brå report cautiously attributes this increase partly to "changes in the police's enforcement work" and "measures gradually introduced to strengthen international cooperation." However, the report concludes that it is "not possible to determine from this study" the precise reasons for this positive trend. For now, it appears that "someone seems to have done something right," and the hope is that this progress continues.