South Korea's '5-Year Curse': Can President Lee Break the Cycle?

South Korean presidents, since democratization, have consistently begun their terms with high hopes, only to conclude them in profound disappointment. This recurring pattern, often referred to as the '5-year curse,' has seen leaders like Kim Young-sam, who initially enjoyed over 90% approval for reforms, plummet to 6% during the IMF crisis. Other presidents have faced similar trajectories, regardless of their political leanings.

Recent polls indicating a negative evaluation of President Lee Jae-myung's administration have sparked concerns about the potential recurrence of this curse. While some surveys still show positive ratings, the author contends these results serve as a sufficient warning that the cycle of disappointment might be starting anew. The article dismisses the idea of constitutional amendments for a 4-year term as impractical given the current political climate and emphasizes that institutional changes alone do not guarantee an end to the curse.

President Lee's strengths lie in his administrative capabilities, evident in his detailed oversight of state affairs, a product of his diverse experience. His ability to quickly identify problems, rectify regulations, and hold officials accountable resonates with the public, offering a sense of catharsis. The administration's attempt to appoint capable individuals regardless of ideology also reflects a meritocratic approach.

However, the article argues that South Korea's current political, economic, and social crises cannot be solved by administrative competence alone. Despite strong economic growth figures, many self-employed individuals and young people are struggling, highlighting a disconnect between macroeconomic performance and individual well-being. The piece criticizes the focus on short-term achievements and the neglect of fundamental structural reforms, such as improving the supply chain's negotiation power for small and medium-sized enterprises, reforming the labor market to reduce the gap between permanent and temporary workers, and restructuring the tax and welfare systems.

The author urges President Lee to embrace a historical mission by initiating bold structural reforms to break the cycle of growth exacerbating socioeconomic crises. This, the article suggests, is crucial to avoid repeating the '5-year curse' and the public's suffering, ultimately shaping his legacy beyond mere administrative efficiency.