South Korea's peak temperatures could surge 6.2 degrees Celsius by century's end without emission cuts

South Korea faces a stark warning: without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the country could experience a rise of up to 6.2 degrees Celsius in its annual maximum daily temperature by the end of the 21st century. This projection, derived from a high-resolution climate change scenario analysis by the Korea Meteorological Administration's National Institute of Meteorological Research, suggests that the intensity of extreme weather events will increase disproportionately compared to average climate shifts.

The analysis utilized a 500-meter resolution model, a significant improvement over previous 1-kilometer resolutions, to incorporate South Korea's complex topography. This detailed approach allowed for more precise calculations of daily average, maximum, and minimum temperatures, as well as precipitation. The findings align with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, showing that higher greenhouse gas concentrations lead to greater increases in temperature and rainfall.

Under a low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), which assumes minimized fossil fuel use and eco-friendly economic growth, South Korea's average temperature is projected to rise by 2.3 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 4% increase in precipitation. However, under a high-carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), characterized by heavy fossil fuel consumption and unchecked development, the average temperature is expected to soar by 5.4 degrees Celsius, accompanied by a 15% rise in precipitation.

The study also delved into the intensification of "extreme climate" indicators. At a global warming level of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, heatwave days are projected to increase by 5.5 days and the annual maximum temperature by 1.4 degrees Celsius. However, if warming reaches 5 degrees Celsius, heatwave days could surge by 48.7 days, and the annual maximum temperature by 6.2 degrees Celsius. Similarly, 1-day maximum precipitation is expected to increase by 6.4% with 1.5 degrees of warming, escalating to a 30.2% increase with 5 degrees of warming.

Notably, the research indicated that the regional variations in extreme climate indicators are significantly larger than those for average temperature and precipitation. This suggests that as global warming intensifies, the impacts of climate change could become increasingly uneven across different regions of South Korea. The detailed climate scenario data is accessible through the "Climate Change Atlas" website.