South Korea's spring wildfire risk could double by late 21st century without emission cuts

South Korea faces a doubled risk of spring wildfires by the late 21st century if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, a new analysis from the Korea Meteorological Administration warns. The study predicts that without significant emission reduction efforts, the country's climate will become more conducive to fires, increasing the danger beyond traditional hotspots like eastern Gangwon and North Gyeongsang provinces to include areas like North Chungcheong and the Seoul metropolitan region.

The analysis utilized the Fire Weather Index (FWI), which quantifies how quickly wildfires can spread and intensify based on temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed. Over the past two decades, more than 70% of wildfires in South Korea occurred between February and May. The FWI consistently correlated with wildfire frequency, with extreme FWI values (in the top 5%) leading to more than double the number of fires compared to moderate periods.

Under a "low-carbon scenario" (SSP1-2.6), which assumes active emission reductions and carbon neutrality, the FWI is projected to increase by 29% by 2100. However, a "high-carbon scenario" (SSP5-8.5), characterized by a focus on development without emission cuts, forecasts a stark 43% rise in the FWI. This significant difference highlights the critical role of climate action in mitigating future wildfire risks.

Regions like eastern Gangwon and North Gyeongsang, already prone to large-scale fires due to low spring humidity, are expected to experience very high FWI values above 8 in the high-carbon scenario. The KMA also projects a substantial increase in extreme FWI events, with a potential rise of up to 2.2 times in the low-carbon scenario and 2.7 times in the high-carbon scenario compared to current levels. "With climate change causing temperatures to rise, the possibility of extreme FWI values appearing in the future is expected to increase compared to the present," said Lee Seom-seon, head of the KMA's climate prediction division.

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With climate change causing temperatures to rise, the possibility of extreme FWI values appearing in the future is expected to increase compared to the present.