South Korean Mayoral Races Too Close to Call as Blackout Begins

South Korea's major mayoral races in Seoul, Busan, and Daegu are too close to call as a media blackout period began ahead of local elections. Final opinion polls released just before the silence period show neck-and-neck contests between the leading candidates from the Democratic Party and the People Power Party.

The Seoul mayoral election is a focal point, with polls showing fluctuating support for the Democratic Party's candidate Jung Won-oh and the People Power Party's Oh Se-hoon. One poll indicated a tie at 39%, while another showed Jung leading by a significant 13.2 percentage points. Both parties are closely monitoring the potential impact of recent incidents, including a subway construction scandal and a bridge collapse, on voter sentiment. The first and only TV debate between the Seoul mayoral candidates is also expected to influence the outcome.

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There are differences in voter turnout by age group that are not reflected in the current opinion polls. Busan has a very large number of voters aged 60 and 70 and above, who typically have higher turnout rates than those in their 20s and 30s. Considering this, I expect the support to be about 5 percentage points higher than current polls indicate.

In Busan and Daegu, the races are similarly tight. While some polls suggest a widening gap for the Democratic Party's candidate in Busan, others show a razor-thin margin. The Daegu mayoral race is also a close contest, with final polls placing the candidates within the margin of error. Analysts suggest that the final consolidation of conservative voters could be decisive in these regions.

Both major parties are expressing mixed expectations about whether the final pre-blackout poll trends will translate into actual election results. The People Power Party believes their candidate in Busan may perform better than polls indicate due to a higher expected turnout among older voters. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party acknowledges the close races in the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region, despite earlier polls showing a comfortable lead, and remains tense as election day approaches.

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Most regions, including Seoul and Chungcheong, are expected to see results align with current poll trends. In the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region, previous polls showed the Democratic Party candidate leading by double digits, but election day results have sometimes shown narrow wins or even losses, so we are cautiously monitoring trends.