SpaceX rocket to crash into moon, creating new crater visible from Earth

A discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket upper stage is set to crash into the moon on Wednesday morning, creating a new crater approximately 20 to 30 meters in diameter. The impact, expected around 8:35 AM, will hurl a kilometer-high cloud of lunar dust into space.

This unusual astronomical event will occur on the near side of the moon, making it visible to telescopes on Earth. While a Chinese rocket stage crashed on the far side in 2022, that impact was not observable from Earth. This will be the first time researchers and amateur astronomers can witness such a significant rocket impact live.

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These rocket stages that fly to the moon normally fly away into space at some point and are no longer seen.

The unguided crash was not part of SpaceX's original plan. "These rocket stages that fly to the moon normally fly away into space at some point and are no longer seen," explained Detlef Koschny, a researcher at the Technical University of Munich. The rocket stage has been tumbling uncontrollably in space since January 2025, after successfully deploying two probes toward the moon.

The prediction of the impact was made not by SpaceX or a scientific institution, but by American amateur astronomer Bill Gray. Gray, who earns a living selling telescope software, published his findings on his company's blog in April. Koschny hopes amateur astronomers will attempt to observe the impact, noting that while the exact visibility is uncertain due to a lack of prior experience with such events, "we will see something."

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But we will see something.