State election: AfD narrowly misses an outright majority? What it would mean for the party

The AfD has achieved its strongest result in any state or federal election, with projections putting it above 44% in Saxony-Anhalt. Yet the victory may not deliver the prize its campaign targeted: an outright majority and the ability to govern alone.

AfD leader Alice Weidel called the result “a historic result” and said it represented a clear mandate to form a government. “Our hand is always extended,” she said. But lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund had made clear before the vote that he wanted to govern alone. On election night, he said he was reaching out to forces that wanted to change the state like the AfD, without specifying whom he meant.

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This is a historic result.

Other parties have ruled out coalitions with the AfD. That leaves the next step uncertain. If the party remains in opposition, it avoids the risks of government while still benefiting from a spectacular electoral gain. It will be far ahead of the CDU and has secured its best result since its creation 13 years ago.

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Our hand is always extended.

The party will also be considerably stronger in the new state parliament. On its own, it can set up investigative committees and block decisions requiring two-thirds majorities, including constitutional amendments. Nationally, it can use the scale of its support to attack other parties and governments with greater force.

The result also exposes the party’s limits. Without governing, it cannot build executive experience or develop personnel, and it will have no direct influence over police, culture, schools or the administration. At the same time, it will not have to prove that its proposed policies can be implemented effectively or accept responsibility for possible failures. The anticipated difficulty of forming a majority without the AfD, including the possibility of cooperation between the CDU and the Left, could give the party a lasting line of attack.

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This blue wave from Magdeburg will sweep through Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and on to Berlin. In the end, it will also bring changes at the federal level.