Stifling Heat, Storm Delays: Weather Extremes Could Impact World Cup

The upcoming 2026 World Cup, set to be held across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, could face significant challenges due to extreme summer weather conditions. Host cities, particularly those in North America, are accustomed to high temperatures, stifling humidity, and frequent thunderstorms, which scientists predict may become more common and intense due to climate change.

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We haven't really detected strong trends yet, but overall it is expected that lightning is going to increase in parts of the US.

Beyond heat and humidity, the tournament also faces risks from wildfires, especially in regions like Canada and California, which can impact air quality. Thunderstorms pose a direct threat to outdoor sporting events, with established protocols mandating delays. In the US, a lightning strike within an eight to 10-mile radius typically triggers a 30-minute suspension, with each subsequent strike resetting the clock. Last year's FIFA Club World Cup, which served as a trial run, saw six matches significantly delayed by severe weather, prompting criticism and questions about the readiness of some American cities to host major tournaments.

Scientists are increasingly concerned about the link between a warming climate and more volatile weather patterns. Kelsey Malloy, a climate scientist at the University of Delaware, noted that while strong trends are not yet definitive, an increase in lightning strikes is expected in parts of the US. A warmer climate contributes to heavier rainfall and stronger updrafts, leading to greater cloud electrification and, consequently, more frequent lightning. "A lot of people maybe imagine if they can't see the storm, they can't see the lightning, they haven't heard the thunder yet, that they're not in an active threat," Malloy cautioned, emphasizing that lightning can strike miles away from the visible storm.

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A warming climate has been linked to heavier rainfall rates as well as stronger rising air, which equals greater electrification of clouds, and therefore greater lightning flash rates.

While forecasting for severe weather has improved, researchers like Ziqin Ding from the University of Florida stress the importance of heeding risk warnings. Stadiums are generally equipped with lightning rods and other safety measures to protect structures. However, the potential for widespread delays and disruptions remains a concern for organizers and participants alike, as the tournament navigates the uncertainties of a changing climate. The CDC reported 444 lightning strike deaths in the US between 2006 and 2021, mostly during outdoor leisure activities, underscoring the real risks associated with severe weather.

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A lot of people maybe imagine if they can't see the storm, they can't see the lightning, they haven't heard the thunder yet, that they're not in an active threat. But lightning can strike miles away from an actual storm location.