Strait normalization is distant, 'end-of-war agreement' on the verge of collapse

The Strait of Hormuz is becoming a new normal of potential conflict and "toll collection," as the United States, following Iran's lead, has indicated it will charge for passage through the vital waterway. This development makes a return to the pre-war era of "free and safe navigation" increasingly unlikely.

President Donald Trump announced on social media that he would reimpose "blockade" measures on ships transiting the strait, demanding "20% of the cargo" as payment for ensuring their safety. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded with a sarcastic remark, agreeing with the principle but deeming Trump's proposed percentage "too excessive" and suggesting Iran would be "fair."

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We will receive 20% of the cargo as payment for ensuring the safety of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation has rapidly deteriorated, with Iran launching attacks on ships not under its control and the US responding with retaliatory airstrikes. The conflict escalated further when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a "re-blockade" of the strait, prompting the US to announce its own "blockade" of Iran starting on a specific date and time. The US Central Command conducted strikes across Iran, which were met with counterattacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.

This escalating confrontation signifies a near collapse of any "peace agreement." The strait, already a point of tension, now faces the prospect of being closed again or operating as a toll gate. The article urges for a calm assessment of the situation and the development of comprehensive measures to minimize the economic shock, alongside long-term strategies to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

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The US president's words are absolutely correct. However, 20% is too excessive. We will be fair.