Strait of Hormuz reopening talks near, but normal traffic may take months

Negotiations are reportedly close to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, offering hope to over 1,500 ships stranded for three months. However, experts caution that a return to normal traffic, which previously saw 130-140 vessels daily, will be a slow process, potentially taking several months even after an agreement is reached.

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Reducing the risk of grounding or collision requires introducing speed limits.

The narrowest point of the strait is only 33 kilometers wide. This bottleneck could cause significant congestion as ships carrying millions of barrels of oil and containers attempt to pass. Establishing clear guidelines for navigation order, customs procedures, and available routes is crucial. The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) recommends speed limits to reduce collision risks.

Data analysis suggests that even with orderly procedures, traffic may only recover to 40-50% of normal levels within three to four weeks. Factors such as limited navigation routes, higher war-risk insurance premiums, and extended waiting times will continue to impact shipping. The presence of mines laid by Iran in the strait poses a serious threat, with some designed to damage hulls through high-pressure bubbles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that mine-clearing operations by naval forces could take weeks.

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Even with orderly transit procedures, traffic will only recover to 40-50% of normal levels within three to four weeks.

Ships that have been idle in the warm Persian Gulf waters are also facing operational challenges. Barnacles and algae have accumulated on their hulls, significantly degrading performance. Hapag-Lloyd, a major container shipping company, reported that only one vessel has exited the strait since the blockade, requiring extensive cleaning and still operating below its normal top speed. Another shipping executive estimates that even with a smooth process, normalizing shipping operations could take at least 30 to 45 days.

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The ship we finally got out required enormous cleaning and still did not reach its top speed.

Iran has signaled its intent to control the strait by establishing a new regulatory body. The ongoing instability in the Red Sea, particularly near the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, also makes many shipping lines hesitant to return to traditional routes. Industry observers remain cautious, citing past instances where a U.S. president announced a reopening only to reverse the decision, eroding trust within the sector.

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Even if everything goes according to plan, it will take at least 30 to 45 days for shipping to normalize.