Strong El Niño threatens Boro harvest in the next season

An unusually strong El Niño could put Bangladesh’s next Boro rice harvest under pressure by bringing the heat and dryness that the country’s biggest rice crop is least equipped to absorb.

The World Meteorological Organization said there was an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent” that El Niño would continue through February. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the phenomenon unusually intense, saying, “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt.”

Climatologist Rashed Chowdhury said the 2026 El Niño was unusually strong and expected to persist into early 2027. Boro rice is planted mainly in December and January and harvested in April and May. It produced nearly 55 percent of Bangladesh’s annual rice output in 2025-26, when total production stood at 2.13 crore tonnes, according to provisional Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data.

The crop depends heavily on irrigation during the dry season. Agricultural experts warn that extreme heat during flowering and grain filling can cause spikelet sterility, leaving rice plants with empty or partly filled panicles. Daytime temperatures above 35°C and nighttime temperatures above 28°C can cause flower sterility, while prolonged heat can sharply reduce yields.

El Niño has historically been associated with lower rainfall during Bangladesh’s Boro season, increasing irrigation needs. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department has already forecast higher temperatures in the coming months. Sharif Ahmed, a cropping systems agronomist at the International Rice Research Institute’s Bangladesh office, said the main concern was heat shock during flowering, particularly from mid-April.

The northwest faces additional water pressure. Rainfall in Rajshahi division has declined by 54 millimetres per decade, based on data from 1980 to 2023. A recent Institute of Water Modelling study found groundwater recharge in seven northwestern districts at only 100-210 millimetres, compared with a normal range of 100-515 millimetres. Groundwater depth reached 36 metres in 2025, up from 16 metres in 1985.

Rashed cautioned that it was too early to assign a specific production loss to El Niño. Bangladesh-specific temperature and rainfall forecasts, he said, would offer a clearer measure of the risk than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal alone.

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El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt.