Study identifies Australia as the country most resilient to global catastrophes

The list of threats facing humanity seems to have no end: nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, artificial intelligence and supervolcanoes. If a catastrophe on an unprecedented scale struck, where could people go to wait for the worst to pass?

A first-of-its-kind study published in the journal Global Challenges points to Australia as the safest overall option. “Australia is probably the most resilient place on Earth when it comes to global catastrophic risks,” researchers wrote. The study’s lead author is environmental scientist Florian Ulrich Jehn of the University of Hagen in Germany.

That does not make Australia completely safe. The researchers say it is simply the country least exposed to the full range of potential threats. Jehn and his colleagues reviewed hundreds of scientific studies and reports on disasters including asteroid impacts, volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks and epidemics.

They grouped the risks into three broad categories. Abrupt sunlight-reduction scenarios include volcanic eruptions, nuclear winter and clouds formed after an asteroid impact. Global catastrophic infrastructure loss covers disruptions to electricity, transport and food production caused by events such as geomagnetic storms, cyberattacks, pandemics and high-altitude electromagnetic pulses. Global catastrophic biological risks include large-scale biological threats, whether natural or human-caused, that could produce mass casualties and severely disrupt society.

The researchers also examined resilience, defined as a society’s ability to preserve essential functions and human well-being during severe disruption. They found that resilience is generally stronger in countries that are democratic and wealthier, have less inequality, maintain a large industrial base with strong state influence, occupy remote locations such as large islands, and have greater decentralization.

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Australia is probably the most resilient place on Earth when it comes to global catastrophic risks.