Study warns that catastrophic threats could put global food security at risk

Global food security could be disrupted within weeks by events that governments rarely place at the center of emergency planning. Florian Ulrich Jehn, a researcher specializing in food security and catastrophic risks at FernUniversität in Hagen, says preparation must cover disasters that are unlikely but capable of causing worldwide damage.

Jehn identified three major scenarios: a massive volcanic eruption, an exceptionally powerful solar storm and a nuclear war. Large volcanic eruptions and nuclear conflict could send particles into the atmosphere, blocking some sunlight, changing temperatures and growing seasons, and sharply reducing harvests.

A volcanic eruption on the scale of Indonesia’s Mount Tambora in 1815, associated with the “year without a summer” in 1816, has an estimated one-in-six chance of recurring during the current century. A solar storm similar to the 1859 event has an estimated probability of between 1% and 12% in any given decade. A modern version could cause widespread disruption to electricity networks.

The food consequences would vary, but all three scenarios could strike the systems that support modern agriculture. In the worst nuclear-war scenario, global food production could drop by up to 90%. Long-term power failures could also halt access to fuel, fertilizer and pesticides, disrupting farming even where land and crops remain available.

Jehn says domestic production alone would not guarantee safety. Australia, despite its strong food-producing capacity, depends on imports of fuel, fertilizer and medicines. During a crisis, export bans and other protectionist measures could further disrupt international supply chains, leaving food in some places while millions elsewhere could not obtain it. He urges governments to expand national preparedness plans and strengthen international cooperation.

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The world still lacks sufficient plans for highly dangerous scenarios.